TV’s digital transformation and the decline of linear viewing
Thoughts on TV News, journalism, and digital media. Issue#13
Welcome to my latest Substack newsletter. I'm Nigel Dacre, a former TV news journalist, turned media executive. In this edition, new projections on how TV viewing in the UK will change over the next 15 years, a round-up of media stories, and a memorial event in London for a TV News legendary cameraman.
Viewing Patterns
For anyone working in the TV business, one of the biggest problems is not knowing the pace of change for viewing patterns.
We all know that viewing is shifting inexorably towards the internet, rather than via TV aerials, and that once in the IPTV environment, viewers are spending more time watching content on streaming platforms, such as Netflix and the BBC iPlayer, rather than what's called linear, schedule-based viewing.
But what we haven't known is how quickly that's happening, and what the balance will be in, say, 10-15 years between those continuing to view scheduled TV and those watching video on demand. For TV companies, these are crucial, and, for some organisations, even existential questions.
TV Forum
Well, there have been interesting developments on these questions in the last week or so.
The UK's Department for Culture and Media (DCMS) has set up a Forum on the Future of TV Distribution, chaired by the Minister for Media Stephanie Peacock, to look at precisely this issue, and then to work out how to support those viewers left behind in the move to internet-based TV.
In my role as Chair of the TV company Comux UK, I have been asked to join the Forum, and our first meeting is this week. It will be fascinating to have both a ringside seat and have an influence on the discussions, as the Government works out its policies in this area.
New Report
Alongside the announcement of the Forum, the DCMS published a report 'The Future of TV Distribution' - written by a team of researchers led by Exeter University. It is an up-to-date and insightful analysis of TV viewing in the UK.
Although the report was focused on the UK, its findings will have relevance to other countries as well. In the US, it's the same trend, with the 'cord-cutting' from the legacy cable and satellite services.
It's a lengthy report, packed with charts and figures. But two points caught my attention.
Decline in Linear Viewing
Firstly, there is clear evidence of the decline of people watching what you could describe as the old-fashioned way of viewing via a 'linear' schedule, where you go to a channel on your TV set, and watch a programme that's currently being broadcast. Hey, it's 8pm - time to watch Coronation St. Ah, it's 10 o'clock – I think I'll catch the news. It's the way many of us, of course, were brought up to watch TV.
But the report shows that linear viewing has declined from 82% to 52% of total viewing from 2014 to 2023, while Video on Demand (VOD) viewing to TV and non-TV devices has grown from 5.5% to just under 40%.
Here's a chart from the report showing the change in linear viewing (in dark blue) – measured by average minutes viewing per person per day via all devices between 2014 and 2023:
By 2040, the report projects that linear viewing will have further declined to just over a quarter of TV viewing time and VOD will represent a clear majority. That’s both Subscription VOD, like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney+, and Broadcaster VOD, like the BBC iPlayer and ITVX.
This will have a big impact on the leading broadcasters in the UK – who have to work out how to adapt their programming to the streaming environment, and how to attract viewers in what is becoming an ever more competitive market.
The new UK Media Bill aims to ensure that the UK public service broadcasters, like the BBC and ITV, will continue to have prominence in this new IPTV world – but it's yet to be seen exactly how that will work, and indeed, how far TV set manufacturers will go out of their way to enforce it.
Sure, on my Samsung TV, the BBC iPlayer and ITVX are there prominently on the screen when I turn it on, but so are a lot of other streaming apps. It's far less prominent than being number 1 (BBC) or number 3 (ITV) on the old traditional TV schedule.
Internet Viewing
The second interesting projection is that by 2040, based on existing market dynamics, 95% of households will use internet-delivered TV services. 71% will rely exclusively on internet delivery, and 24% will be hybrid homes, combining internet-delivered TV with digital terrestrial television (via a TV aerial) or via digital satellite.
Of the remaining 5% of homes, and assuming there are no major TV industry changes or Government intervention to encourage digital take-up, an estimated 400,000 households will choose not to connect to broadband, and 1.1 million homes will have broadband but decline to connect their TVs to it for the purposes of viewing programmes. And it's that 5% that the Government are concerned about.
The viewers in this group are more likely to have poor digital skills, be elderly, on low incomes, and live in the north of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The problem is that it would be expensive to maintain the engineering infrastructure to continue to deliver TV via aerials just for a relatively small group, and there will be pressure in the next 5 years or so to free up spectrum for other services.
Some argue that the expense is worthwhile to support the digitally excluded beyond the current 2034 DTT license renewal date; others, that the Government should consider alternative interventions to get internet TV services to that 5% group.
Conclusion
So, the new UK Forum on the Future of TV Distribution will have a lot to talk about. The first meeting at DCMS in Whitehall will kick-start the review.
The future for TV viewing is clear. Linear will still be watched - for major live programmes and by those who like the convenience of curated channel schedules. But the majority of viewing will be internet-based, on-demand, and cross-device.
What’s less clear is how broadcasters will adapt and evolve in this new world, whether some of the broadcasters will opt out of the high-cost ‘TV aerial’ DTT network, and what the Government will do about those left behind by the shift to IPTV viewing.
Coming Up
It's certainly a busy time in the world of media, and there is no shortage of subjects I plan to keep an eye on for future editions of the Newsletter. Here are three at the top of my list.
US Media. Much hand-wringing amongst the US media about how it failed to predict the Trump landslide, in what one Substack writer has called the "cellphone election". Much debate, too, on how journalists and newsrooms will deal with an anti-'mainstream media' President. And much discussion on how (and how much) the press and TV should cover the incoming Trump administration. It’s going to be a busy few months for those writing about the media in the US.
CNN. And still with media news in the US, according to reports, we are about to see more developments in Mark Thompson's emerging post-linear strategy, with hundreds of layoffs, and more presenters moving to other outlets. Puck has an interesting take on it in an article headlined, "CNN’s Existential Post-Election Season".
The Observer. Meanwhile, I'm fascinated by the ongoing story about Tortoise Media’s mission to buy the world's oldest Sunday newspaper. New media meets very old media. New ways of working coming up against a legacy newsroom. And a bold, audacious approach from a loss-making start-up venture to a company that is run by a Trust formed nearly 100 years ago. The editor of Tortoise was interviewed on the BBC's The Media Show, and talked about how a daily digital edition of the Observer would work alongside the printed Sunday edition. Well worth a listen (27 minutes in).
And Finally… Remembering Nigel Thomson
A great turnout of ITN and AP camera crews, field editors and producers at an event to remember one of their colleagues, Nigel Thomson OBE, who died over the summer, aged only 68. It was held last month in the appropriate setting of the Frontline Club in West London, and it was an evening of affectionate memories.
It was good catching up with former colleagues at the event, and swapping stories of Nigel’s work on the road.
He is a bit of an ITN and AP legend – not least for his late-night partying in trouble-spot hotels around the world. But he was also respected as one of the best cameramen in the business. His sensitive filming of the miners' strike is still talked about, and he memorably spent 6 months embedded with British troops in the first Gulf War.
Fred Hickey - one of the top ITN picture editors - was quoted by a speaker at the event: "You don't edit Nigel's pictures. You just put a clock on the front and hit play".
The event also heard from the now-retired ITV News reporter Paul Davies, who had worked with Nigel over many years, on many stories.
Paul made specific reference to when he and Nigel stayed in Dubrovnik in 1991 after most journalists had left, and when Nigel filmed extraordinary scenes of the Serbian shelling of the historic city. I was Head of Daytime Programmes at ITN at the time, and remember the impact that the resulting report had, throughout the news industry.
Paul told the memorial event:
"I shared many of the best bits of my career, some of the highlights of my life, with Nigel… But surely his finest hour was Dubrovnik, where he not only took great risks to film a conflict but influenced its outcome for the good when the exclusive pictures we smuggled out brought international pressure on the Belgrade regime to call off the bombardment of that beautiful city."
Paul then read out a condolence letter from the Mayor of Dubrovnik, Mato Franković. It said:
"Nigel Thomson has left an indelible mark on the history of our city. His footage brought the truth about the horrors that befell Dubrovnik, raising awareness within the international community, and contributing to the cessation of the destruction. The memory of Nigel Thomson and his bravery will live on in our hearts, and his contribution to our city will never be forgotten."
Not a bad way to be remembered – a cameraman whose work saved a city.
You can watch Nigel’s filming of the Dubrovnik siege here on the ITN Archive YouTube Channel:
For non-British readers, ITN is the main commercial TV news organisation in the UK, producing ITV News, Channel 4 News and Five News.
I find some of the info in the report into the transition to IP based delivery in error. Specifically one point where it believes 5% will not be broadband connected, which specifically means that 5% will not have ANY telephony services or any tele-health support due to the end of POTS in 2027. I do not believe this will be the case. More is of issue in the report but I believe that will come out of wash in due course as the actual speed of change is compared to the forecast.
A lot of benefit to all would be had by having a better holistic view and identifying the benefits of accelerating the transition rather than resisting what is a consumer driven change.
Superb post Nigel! Totally agree, the future of TV is, as you say, "internet-based, on-demand, and cross-device". I wonder about the future of live mixed-genre linear channels. Also the extent to which the UK public service broadcasters will try to hold onto their own TV apps as the primary way of finding their programmes, or whether they'll agree to a single federated app supporting all business models (licence fee, subscription, advertising) with a single sign-in, which could be viewed on any streaming device.